Forex Quebec

"We will continue to closely monitor the market with caution so we can act in a timely and appropriate manner when needed." - Japan's Finance Ministry for International Affairs (based on Reuters)

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The US stock markets opened the trading week and the second quarter with strong support by the buyers as indices rose nearly 1%. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was a little bit better than expected but it was good enough to spread optimism among the investors, which will look forwards to the FOMC meeting minutes later today.

The US stock markets rose 0.8% last week and completed the best 1Q since 1998. The rising came on the background of mixed economic data, as the GDP was 3% against forecast of 2.8%. However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was under expectations with 52.4 points against consensus of 54.6 points.

On the technical aspect, the S&P 500 created a candlestick with a long tail downwards that indicated for strong support at 1400 points and this increases the chances for a continuation of the rally. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, looked more bearish on Friday, mainly because the declines in Apple, but if Dow and S&P rise, the NASDAQ will probably not left behind.

The US stock markets are closed on Friday due to "Good Friday" and therefore the forex markets might trade in narrow range with low volumes on the second part of the week.

EUR/USD

On the previous weekly analysis, we estimated that if the EUR broke the resistance at 1.33, it would complete the "Cup & Handle" pattern under the resistance at 1.33. The Euro eventually broke the first resistance, and although it got another one at 1.34, it looks strong to continue towards 1.35, which its break-up might take the Euro to the 200 SMA at 1.36. Nevertheless, a break-down of last week low, at 1.325, would be a bearish signal for the European currency.

On the fundamental aspect, the investors will wait for the ECB rate statement on Friday, in which the central bank supposes to keep the interest rate on 1.0%. On Friday are published the Non-Farm payroll change data & unemployment rate, which have high impact on the markets.

GBP/USD

During last week, we showed that the pound made the "Double-Top" pattern at 1.60, which indicated for incoming bearish session. However, we also mentioned that the pound could surprise and rise above the resistance, which it did and now the currency is moving towards the 6-months pick at 1.616. Nevertheless, the break-up cannot be declared as successful yet and the USD will be influenced by the US stock markets.

The Bank of England will publish the interest rate on Thursday and as the ECB, the BOE is expected to keep the rate on the current levels. Today is published the home prices data in Britain.

GOLD

The precious metals seemed to find a bottom for the recent bearish session, since they have stopped falling in the recent seven trading days. The gold broke-down the support at $1670 but got another support at $1630, which lift the metal to the break-down area that became a resistance area. The gold tried to break-through the resistance but blocked by the round number $1700 and fell under $1670 again. A successful break-up this time might launch the gold upwards $1720, but a failure might pull the metal under #1630 again.

by SunbirdFX

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

The US stock markets closed on mixed territory yesterday as Dow Jones rose 0.15% and S&P 500 shed 0.16%. The declines came on the background of disappointing continuing jobless claims data and on the beginning of the trading session it looked like the stocks were about to slide sharply, but eventually they closed higher.

The US stock market closed the second day of the trading week close to the opening levels, after strong rally on Monday. The consumer confidence data was lower than the previous data but did not have a significant influence on the investors. Today is published the Core Durable Goods Orders m/m data.

The US stock markets opened the trading week deeply in the green territory as NASDAQ led the markets to new highs. On the weekly analysis we mentioned that the indices made the bullish reversal pattern on Friday and therefore we expected them to resume rising. The investors ignored the disappointing pending home sales data and what drives the markets is the fact that the hedge funds, who believed that the markets were about to correct down, had to push more money into the stock markets in order to stick with the S&P 500.

The US stock markets close a negative trading week for the first time in several weeks but the strong finish on Friday made a bullish reversal pattern in the indices' daily chart. The S&P 500 gets the support at 1380 points, which we analyzed as an important support it would have to break-down in order to start a significant correction. If the index rises above Friday's high at 1400 points, it might try to cross above the recent pick at 1414 points. However, a break-down of the support could be the beginning of a strong bearish correction.

The US stock markets continued the bearish momentum that started on Wednesday and shed 0.7% despite improving unemployment claims. However, the indices reached the break-up levels, which are now supporting the stocks and in order to see additional declines, the S&P will have to break-down the level of 1380 points.

USD/JPY

The declines in Wall Street and the encouraging economic data supported the USD against the major currencies, except the Japanese Yen. Two weeks ago, we estimated that a strong break-up at 80.0 would take the USD up to 85.0 versus the JPY, and the pair started correcting down after reaching 84.15. The USD might continue rising in the current session but the chances for a bearish correction are getting higher, as stochastic levels indicate for an obvious overbuying situation. In case of a significant correction, the pair might retest the break-up are at 0.80.

EUR/JPY

The Euro reached the resistance against the USD at 1.325, which we analyzed several times during the week and the bearish momentum in Wall Street prevents it from breaking-through the resistance. The weakening of the Euro gives the Yen opportunity to correct against it after two months of declines.  The strengthening of the Euro against the Yen was extremely sharp and therefore the correction might be aggressive as well. The pair already corrected 50% of the movement that started on the beginning of the months and might make the bullish reversal from this point, heading towards 110.0. However, if the pair breaks-down the support at 108.5, it might fall under 107.0.

CAD/JPY

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

by SunbirdFX

The US indices closed on the red territory yesterday and signs for an incoming correction are increasing. The indices traded in a positive momentum most of the day but Bernanke's testifies caused heavy sells on the last half-hour of the trading day. Bernanke did not say anything new and he just made it clear that the threat of the European debt problem on the US economy still exists. Nevertheless, his words caused sharp declines and even if the stocks resume rising, this was a strong signal that the investors are nervous and looking for excuses to sell stocks.

NZD/USD

Last week we showed the "Inverted Cup & Handle" pattern in the daily chart of this pair and estimated that a strong break down might take the Kiwi under 0.80. However, we also warned from opening a position in a level that many traders do and that it could be a trap for the amateurs.  The pair broke but as we warned, it rose right after the break-down and got the resistance under 0.83. The pair is now close to 0.81 again, and since the probability for a strengthening of the USD is getting higher, the pair might make a successful break down this time. If it does, it will get the support by the round number 0.80 and additional break-down there might take the pair down to 0.785.

AUD/NZD

The pattern of the AUD/USD reminds the pattern of the NZD/USD, as the "Inverted Cup & Handle" pattern appears in the pair's daily chart as well, which its break-down might take the Aussie down to 1.025. However, the 200 SMA is a strong resistance and therefore we might see the Australian dollar correct from this point.

The pair AUD/NZD is influenced by the fact that these both currencies are traded in the same momentum versus the USD and therefore we have not seen a significant change in the pair in the recent days. However, the pair made an accurate descending triangle above the support at 1.28, which indicate for a possible strengthening of the NZD against the AUD. If the NZD eventually get stronger and breaks the support, the pair might slide to 1.27 and even downwards to 1.26.

GOLD

Risk Disclosure

Trading and the execution of transactions in currencies, commodities,CFD  indexes and other financial products with or without using  high financial leverage, is speculative trading of high risk and may cause substantial gain or loss proportional to the size of the collateral, up to the total loss of the collateral sum in a very short period. The fluctuation of the prices and rates in the currency markets, commodities, CFD ,indexes and other  financial derivatives are often volatile and there is no accurate   forecasting as per the size of the change, its direction and the time frame in which it occurs.You must consider carefully and seriously if this type of financial activity fits your needs, your financial resources and personal circumstances. Since the risk of losing some of the invested funds or all the funds in a relative short period is high; it is recommended that you use for that purpose funds which you designated for speculative financial transactions of high risk.

You acknowledge and fully understand that there may be more and other risks which are not detailed or not cotained above

by SunbirdFX.